Local Counts Show One of the Largest Nationwide Declines in Years, but the Federal Report Remains Unreleased
The latest numbers, typically compiled into a national report released in December, have not yet been published. Early local data, however, points to a significant decrease in homelessness nationwide in 2024. The data reflects conditions during the final year of the Biden administration. During that time, Housing First strategies were a central federal approach to homelessness.
This, of course, clashes with the Trump administration’s insistence that harsher policies are needed to achieve effective change. The delay comes at a time when homelessness policy is a central political issue.
Why the Annual Homeless Assessment Report Matters
The figures in question are the results of the annual Point-in-Time count, conducted nationwide every January. The count is required by the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and is used to determine funding allocations across federal programs.
While local areas have access to their own data practically as soon as it is collected, the nationwide results are collated into a report called the Annual Homeless Assessment Report, or AHAR. The AHAR is almost always released in December, ahead of the next year’s Point-in-Time count.
A HUD spokesperson has denied that the report is behind schedule, saying, “There is no standard timeline for the release of the Annual Homeless Assessment Report (AHAR), as precedent shows. The 2021 AHAR was released in February 2022, while the 2020 report was released in March 2021. HUD is on pace to produce a thorough and comprehensive AHAR to provide the best data in addressing America’s homelessness problem.”
Those delays occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. HUD has not indicated a reason for the current timeline.
What Local Point-in-Time Data Reveals About 2024 Homelessness Trends
A New York Times analysis of data from local counts indicates a significant decline in the number of homeless people counted in 2025 compared with the historic high recorded in 2024. We expect to see a drop of tens of thousands. Data analysts are seeing decreases like 60% in Chicago, 25% in Denver, and 9% in Washington, DC. New York City alone is estimated to have seen a 10% or more drop in homelessness. Homelessness in California has either stabilized or decreased slightly. According to their respective local report, unsheltered homelessness has dropped by 10% in Los Angeles and by 19% in Florida.
Overall, while the sampled data showed a decline in homelessness of nearly 7%, analysts recognize that the sample was overweighted with data from large metropolitan areas, which were more likely to see a sharp swing in numbers than smaller cities and towns. Bearing that in mind, they estimate that the actual nationwide decline in homelessness was between 3 and 5 percent. That is a significant decrease, which could represent one of the first nationwide decreases in several years.
That is a remarkable accomplishment, and, given Trump’s insistence that drastic measures must now be taken amid rising homelessness, it may also be seen as an inconvenient fact to some.
How Homelessness Data Shapes Federal Policy Decisions
The timing of this report is difficult to ignore. It documents conditions during the final year of the Biden administration, when Housing First strategies were widely implemented. Yet it is being released at a moment when federal homelessness policy is moving in a markedly different direction. The Trump administration may fear that showing proof that Housing First strategies have been working may weaken support for their own draconian “Treatment First,” “Work First,” or maybe even “Jail First” policies.
They may also be gambling to see whether they can stall long enough to claim the numbers in the report as their own achievements. Of course, the numbers in this report were collected in January 2025, just weeks after the administration changed hands, meaning the results reflect policies already in place rather than those currently being proposed.
How Housing First Policies Contributed to a Nationwide Decline
Among all the spin doctoring we’re likely to see when this report is finally released, we can’t lose sight of what the data is actually telling us. Namely, that common-sense solutions like increasing access to housing and supportive services — as seen under the Biden administration — actually work.
The current administration is going to try every trick in the book to make people believe that the common-sense solutions we’ve been seeing good results from are ineffective. They’ll say that the only way to make a real difference is through “tough love,” criminalization, and rampant dehumanization.
But they’re seeing the same numbers we’re seeing. They know that the policies enacted under the Biden administration led to a marked decline in homelessness. And yet they’re moving in the complete opposite direction of those proven, effective policies. This isn’t about disagreeing on the best way to reach the same goal. They’re aiming for a different goal entirely.
Why Accurate Homelessness Data Is Critical Right Now
Once these numbers show a marked reduction in the number of homeless people counted from 2024 to 2025, there will be a lot of self-congratulations within the Trump administration. Trump himself may even genuinely believe he did something. But those of us who are more grounded in reality know that this administration has brought incredible harm to homeless communities across the country and will likely only escalate if left unchecked.
Already, Trump administration actions and policies have displaced dozens of homeless people from DC, evicted hundreds from a national forest in Oregon, and proposed massive cuts to the housing and services funding. At the same time, the administration has turned its back on the Housing First strategies that have proven to be effective at ending homelessness in favor of arresting, harassing, and scapegoating homeless people who have nowhere else to go.
We cannot let this administration use other people’s results to justify harsher and harsher measures.